Wednesday
Sep082010

The Infrastructure Bank

On Labor Day, president Barack Obama announced a plan to spend $50 billion on infrastructure projects, part of an overall stimulus package designed to alleviate employment problems and jump start the economy. It is also a bow to political reality in that anything the president was to propose in a heated election season, especially where the other side of the aisle smells blood in the water, would be opposed, but infrastructure spending - the perennial favorite pork-laden entree for representatives of each party - would be opposed less vehemently. This is smart politics in a period of time when all politics is seemingly rotten.

The president's plan does include one fascinating proposal that is warming the cockles of wonkish hearts everywhere: the establishment of an infrastructure bank.

Obama also called for a permanent funding mechanism, an infrastructure bank, to focus on paying for national and regional infrastructure projects. Officials provided few details of how the bank would work.

For non-wonks, an infrastructure bank is not a bank the way it is commonly thought of (except it will get its money from the government, so in that sense I guess it is like many modern banks). An infrastructure bank is -- as designed -- an independent entity that would receive federal dollars for infrastructure and then distribute them using a non-political evaluation. In theory, the money would go to the projects with the greatest return on investment, be they local, regional or national in nature. Projects would compete and our limited dollars would go to those most worthy.

In another wrinkle, the bank would be free to tap into private capital. The infrastructure bank would then function as an investor, seeking a return on infrastructure investments through the use of tolls, fees or other direct mechanisms. In this way, limited federal dollars could be combined with capital from the private sector to the benefit of all.

While the Obama proposal lacks specifics (it is just a proposal, so that is not a criticism), William Galston of the Brookings Institution explains some of the likely details:

There is widespread agreement that it should focus on large regional initiatives that cut across jurisdictional lines and that its decisions should be made by a board of governors insulated from traditional political pressures. To reach the scale at which it could make a real economic difference, it must be able to leverage a modest amount of publicly provided capital to attract much larger amounts of private capital, which would demand a reasonable rate of return. To provide it, most projects the bank funds would have to generate revenue streams from user fees and other sources. The bank could supplement these fees with subsidies that reflect the gap between the private goods projects generate and the public goods whose value cannot be recaptured from individual beneficiaries.

Reaction from the geek-o-sphere has been rather positive. The Christian Science Monitor had an overwhelming supportive piece, pointing out the populist appeal of taking the pork-barrel out of the hands of politicians.

Oddly, despite the political timing of Obama’s proposal just weeks before the election, such a bank would help remove some pork-barrel politics that now influence the construction of highways and mass transit. Projects would be decided on their merits by an independent board within an infrastructure bank – and for one simple reason. The bank would need to pay back its investors. 

Robert Puentes of Brookings, oft-quoted here and a long-time proponent of an infrastructure bank, actually suggested that the Obama proposal may not go far enough, although he too lauded the innovation of the bank:

First the good: there are several key reforms that promise to change the way transportation infrastructure projects are funded and chosen on the federal, state, and metropolitan levels. A merit-driven national infrastructure bank could be the vehicle for green-lighting projects that have the highest return on investment rather than the greatest political reward.

We have not discussed the concept of an infrastructure bank here on this blog, even though it would seemingly align with our emphasis on return-on-investment when it comes to infrastructure spending. The reason is simple: I have thought about it a lot, but I don't have a strong opinion on it. I suspect Jon and Ben are likewise disposed.

My initial reaction to the approach is skepticism. The first thought that crosses my mind is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the quasi-free-market behemoths that have not only enabled destructive development on a massive scale, but have done it all the while privatizing the gains and socializing the losses to the tune of literally a quarter of a trillion dollars (and counting). The best laid plans....

My next hesitation comes from turning decisions on national priorities over to what essentially would be quasi-bureaucrats. The only thing scarier (and more dangerous) than a corrupt political class is a corrupt bureaucracy. At least the former has some accountability, if only nominal. The latter has none. This is one of the arguments made in The Economist:

If we generalise Mr [Steven] Pearlstein's [proponent of an infrastructure bank] reasoning, we end up with, at best, a ruthlessly rational and efficient Singapore-style technocracy, which wouldn't be so bad, but isn't anybody's idea of liberal democracy. More likely, we would end up with a system even more corrupt, corporatist, and inefficient than the one we've got, but with fewer of the protections afforded by democracy.    

These arguments being said, if I were stood up against the wall and asked to stick with the present politically-driven, pork barrel spendfest of projects that not only squander what wealth we have left but do it in a way that actually makes us financially weaker when the long-term commitments are calculated, OR support an infrastructure bank, give me the bank. At least with the bank we have a chance to have some return on the public investment, at least in the near term.

To strengthen the infrastructure bank proposal, we also need a plan to address the trillions of dollars of infrastructure already in the ground that has a negative ROI. How do we increase the return on these investments or, alternatively, wind down our long-term commitments in these places? Proponents of an infrastructure bank look at it as a way to get more money, but it really just redirects capital (perhaps efficiently) and in that sense does not address the long term gaps in funding that exist (in Minnesota the gap is $50 billion over the next 20 years).

An infrastructure bank may be a good first step, but we have to admit that it is an easy one. Figuring out what to do with the long tail of public commitments that have little or no actual value is even more perplexing. The reality is that these commitments will likely be "devolved" to the lowest level of government, with only token financial support to accompany the "gift". An infrastructure bank may hasten this process, which only makes the need for towns and neighborhoods to start working towards a Strong Towns strategy all the more critical.

 

Strong Towns is now ranked #17 on the Planetizen list of popular blogs. Keep spreading the word about the Strong Towns movement by inviting your friends to join us on Facebook and Twitter. Or sign up for a Curbside Chat and bring the Strong Towns message to your community.

Tuesday
Sep072010

Running out of options

At the end of August, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a much-anticipated speech on the state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's approach towards dealing with the current crisis. Our tightly-wound markets reacted with glee at the prospect that further quantitative easing (aka printing money) would reignite the two-decade financial delusion we have just been through. I was left a little bewildered, as should everyone that has an understanding that our current pattern of development is not financially sustainable, regardless of how the economy is functioning.

The NY Times covered the event with the headline, "Policy Options Dwindle as Economic Fears Grow". The article covered the essence of the speech, which was, "how do we get Americans spending again?"

Early this year, some economists declared that the cycle was finally righting itself. Businesses were restocking inventories, yielding modest job growth in factories. Hopes flowered that these new wages would be spent in ways that led to the hiring of more workers — a virtuous cycle.

But the hopes failed to account for how extensively spending power had dropped in the American economy, and how uneasy people were made by every snippet of data showing that houses were not selling, employers were not hiring, and stock prices were foundering.

We're trying to create a "virtuous cycle" - get people spending again so that shelves get restocked, thus leading to more hiring and more people with money to spend....and on and on and on.... The problem is that people are "uneasy". This is written as if the "uneasy" mood is not completely rational, that somehow people with underwater mortgages, huge amounts of consumer debt, complete loss of mobility and a tightening job market should not be uneasy. 

The reality is that Americans are acting sane. Our consumer-spending-driven, consumption-based lifestyle hit a brick wall two decades ago. Our response was to dream up even more ways for people to access credit to keep things moving: interest only mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards for teenagers, etc...

Remember when we used to buy things on layaway? For those of you that don't, layaway is when the store owner would take the piece of merchandise, put it in the back in storage for you, and then you would pay for it over time. Once it was paid off, you could take it home. That just didn't drive the economy as fast as credit, which allowed you to take it home now and worry about paying for it later.

So it really should be no surprise - even if it is really depressing - that our country's policy makers think that the way to get things moving again is through even more credit. 

The primary way to attack deflation is to inject credit into the economy, giving reluctant consumers the wherewithal to spend. The chief deflation fighter is the Federal Reserve, which traditionally adjusts a benchmark overnight rate for banks that influences rates on car loans, mortgages and other forms of credit. The Fed pulled this lever long ago, and has kept its target rate near zero since late 2008.

The Fed has also been more creative. During the worst of the financial crisis, the Fed relieved American banks of troubled investments, many linked to mortgages, to give the banks room to make new loans.

Make new loans? Is this what our future depends on; the ability of all of us to take on even more debt? We need developers to take on more debt to build housing subdivisions, cities to take on more debt to subsidize infrastructure and consumers to take on more debt to buy it all, along with all the trimmings from the local big box retailer. 

This is what the smartest people in the country believe is our salvation? Are they insane? This Ponzi scheme is what got us here in the first place.

I feel like the American economy is a sick patient on the stretcher. We've just given multiple shots of adrenaline, shouted "clear" a few times while we defib'd the heart and now are all looking at each other in utter panic not knowing whether or not to just keep going with the only thing we know how to do or call in the priest to perform the last rites. 

At least Bernanke seems to understand the end result if we do keep on going: inflation. Fighting inflation is his top mandate, after all.

“The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation,” [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke] said. “We do.” Then he added: “The issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using the tool.”

Let me interpret that statement for you. The Chairman is saying that we can print enough money to make everyone's underwater loans solvent, give everyone enough money to spend on new cars and wash machines, and generally raise our Lazarus economy from the dead, but doing so will make that money near worthless. You might feel better about all the new equity you have in your home until you went to the grocery store and found out that a week's worth of food cost you $800. Or a tank of gas cost $250. 

The dramatic expansion of the national debt — which began in the Bush administration, via hefty tax cuts and two wars — has ratcheted up fears that, one day, creditors like China and Japan might demand sharply higher interest rates to finance American spending. Those rates would spread through the economy and inflict the reverse of deflation: inflation, or rising prices, as merchants lose faith in the sanctity of the dollar and demand more dollars in exchange for oil, electronics and other items.

We have too much debt. And I'm not just talking about public debt (which is enormous), but private debt in particular. Private sector indebtedness dwarfs public debt.

We can't jump start this economy using the false stimulus of borrowing and spending that got us into this mess. We won't see anything but long term liability from more infrastructure to maintain, especially if we pay for that infrastructure with even more debt. Doing so is the worst of both worlds.

Unfortunately, there is only one decent way out of this. It is not without pain, but it is much less painful than the alternative.

“The recession is the cure for the disease that affects the economy, but the politicians don’t have the stomach for it,” says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Connecticut-based brokerage house. “They’re going to keep stimulating the economy until they kill it with an overdose. The hyper-inflation that results is going to be far worse than the cure.”

We need to stop trying to stimulate our way to prosperity and come to grips with the fact that the American Dream we have been sold over the past generation is not real. Towns and neighborhoods need to embrace a Strong Towns approach, our traditional way of building community alongside our balance sheet, to renew local prosperity, regardless of what crazy decisions are made in Washington.

 

Strong Towns is now ranked #17 on the Planetizen list of popular blogs. Keep spreading the word about the Strong Towns movement by inviting your friends to join us on Facebook and Twitter. Or sign up for a Curbside Chat and bring the Strong Towns message to your community.

Friday
Sep032010

Friday News Update

I've struggled writing this piece, not really sure how to begin or end. I really enjoy writing this blog, sharing ideas with all of our readers and learning even more from the entire process, as well as all of the feedback. A lot of people email me with their thoughts, questions or suggestions. Many people forward me articles for the news digest. This is all so kind and I'm overwhelmed at times with the tremendous interest and enthusiasm people have for Strong Towns. Thank you, everyone.

I've had a little Minnesota guilt the past couple of months because I have not been able to keep up with all of the stuff sent to me. I don't want to disrespect anyone, but I've quite literally physically had a hard time getting back to people. I actually became worried because writing the blog was increasingly taking up a lot more of my time than it had in the past, not to mention doing the other work we are doing here as well as my full-time job at Community Growth Institute and, of course, I'm a husband and dad to some awesome girls.

Well, last week I was diagnosed with hypothyroidism. This is actually great news, because for many months I have felt myself physically (and mentally) deteriorating but was not really able to fully comprehend what was happening. Like the proverbial frog in ever-warming water, the symptoms kind of crept up. Having a diagnosis, especially for something that is such a common ailment and so easily treated and managed, is a relief.

I'm not a doctor, but this is what I gather. Hypothyroidism is a disorder in your thyroid, which regulates metabolism. In the hypo-version, things slow down like your body is trying to hibernate. The symptoms I had were mostly joint and muscle pain, really severe headaches, a detached mental state and - most debilitating - extreme fatigue.

I'm a guy that runs on four or five hours of sleep fairly routinely. Over the last two months I was getting ten or more hours a night and still having problems staying awake during the day. It is funny to think now that my assumption this summer was that I was just getting older and needed to slow down. For crying out loud - 37 is not old, no matter how many Mt. Dews one drinks (and I have cut down a lot).

Anyways, I have a prescription now and things seem to be going well. I am definitely feeling better, although knowing what it is has made me a little less resistant to the effects. Instead of fighting the fatigue and then falling asleep with my computer open on my lap, I'm giving in, shutting it down and heading to bed when tired. I've read that it takes up to a couple of months to get everything right, but I'm optimistic after this week that it will not be nearly that long.

Hypothyroidism is very common and the drug they have given me is the only medication I have ever seen that says on the label that there are no side effects. I'll bet it really pained some attorney to write that, actually. My writing all this here is certainly not to solicit any sympathy (please, no) but more to clear my guilt and let all the kind people that have emailed, tweeted, messaged and texted me know why I have been really slow on the response.

While I'm at it, I'm just going to again say thank you. Since the year started, our regular readership has grown by a multiple of twenty. WOW! I appreciate everyone who has talked about what we are doing, has spread the word to others, participated with us on Facebook and Twitter, etc.. We're attracting a lot of great attention thanks to you.

And additional gratitude to Justin, who has had to do some extra editing here with my decreased mental awareness (not to mention carry the load with the day-to-day work). Thanks for letting me sleep in the car on our way to meetings and site visits. I'm fortunate to work with such kind people.

Strong Towns is a big part of the answer to many of the problems that confound policymakers here in America. Let's all continue to do what we can to build Strong Towns.

-Chuck

P.S. Last night we had our first Curbside Chat and it was awesome! I can't wait to share the content with all of you.