Vancouver’s Annexation Gamble: When “Go Big” Goes Terribly Wrong
Annexation modeling map of Vancouver, Washington. (Source: City of Vancouver.)
Elected officials are under constant pressure to go big. They're often told they must pursue bold, transformational projects to prove they are solving deep, long-standing problems. In reality, these proposals often amount to more of the same: large, expensive expansions that compound financial liabilities.
Facing budget stress and declining returns on prior investments, it's easier to keep pretending growth will save the city than to stop and question the assumptions. But doubling down on the same development pattern that created the problem in the first place rarely leads to a better outcome.
Vancouver, Washington, is weighing a decision that perfectly illustrates this dynamic. City officials are considering annexing all 56 square miles of their urban growth area—a move that would double the size of the city and make it the second largest in Washington. But as the numbers show, this would come at a staggering cost.
According to the city’s own estimates, full annexation would result in an ongoing $49 million annual deficit. Other scenarios fared only slightly better, with projected shortfalls between $42 and $50 million. The only annexation scenario that would produce a surplus was quickly dismissed by some councilors, with one saying, “I would hate to make a profit off of annexation.”
That kind of thinking reveals how far we’ve drifted from sound fiscal stewardship. As Strong Towns founder Charles Marohn often says, growth is not the same thing as prosperity. When growth is based on low-return, car-dependent development, it leaves cities with more infrastructure to maintain and fewer resources to do it.
This is not leadership—it’s gambling with the future.
But there is another way. Cities can choose to focus on high-return, low-risk investments that build wealth broadly over time. They can work within existing infrastructure to make neighborhoods stronger, more resilient, and more financially productive.
If you’re facing pressure to sign off on a big plan that doesn’t add up, we can help. Take the Strong Towns 101 course to start building a different approach. Or bring Strong Towns to your community and let us help you have this conversation. We’ve worked with hundreds of cities to find a better way forward—and we can help yours too.
