West Virginia Is the Canary in America’s Infrastructure Coal Mine
West Virginia has run out of road, and out of money.
Just seven years ago, the state launched an ambitious infrastructure program called Roads to Prosperity, backed by a statewide referendum and $1.6 billion in highway bonds. It was pitched as a once-in-a-generation investment in economic growth — an effort to patch potholes, build new highways, and revive struggling communities. Today, the money is gone, the debt is locked in for decades, and 14% of the state’s bridges are still in poor condition.
This is not just a West Virginia problem. It’s a national warning.
For decades, we’ve built transportation systems on the belief that if we expand the network, growth will follow. When that growth doesn’t materialize fast enough, we double down, borrowing more, building more, and convincing ourselves that prosperity is just one more highway segment away. But, as West Virginia is now discovering, the bill eventually comes due. And when it does, we’re left with less flexibility, more infrastructure than we can afford, and fewer options to dig ourselves out.
The Growth Ponzi Scheme in Real Time
The Roads to Prosperity program was launched in 2017 with bipartisan support and public approval. It was meant to address deferred maintenance and fuel economic revitalization in a state that has long struggled with job loss, out-migration, and stagnant investment. More than 1,200 projects have been completed, and over 9,000 miles of roadway have been paved.
But the West Virginia Department of Transportation is responsible for over 36,000 miles of roads and nearly 7,000 bridges. Even at its scale of investment, Roads to Prosperity addressed only a fraction of what’s needed. Worse, the money is now gone, only seven years into a 30-year bond program.
“Effectively, all of the money...was already committed within seven years," Governor Patrick Morrisey said during a press conference in June. “The public didn’t know that.”
According to Morrisey, the state is now effectively out of funds. It’s spending $120 million per year on those bonds in interest alone, leaving just over $650 million annually to maintain a vast and aging transportation system. That’s not enough. Some reports suggest the state would need $1.2 to $1.5 billion each year just to keep its roads and bridges in a state of good repair.
This is a textbook example of the Growth Ponzi Scheme: taking on debt to build new infrastructure in hopes that future development will generate enough revenue to cover the costs. But that growth rarely materializes at the scale required, and the maintenance obligations only grow.
The West Virginia Economic Outlook 2023–2028 report lays the numbers bare: “West Virginia’s real GDP fell by around 3 percent in 2020, and has failed to bounce back since, growing only 1.3 percent and 0.4 percent over the past two years.” Outside of energy, the state’s economy has been flat for nearly a decade. In other words, despite $1.6 billion in infrastructure spending, there is no clear evidence of new growth, new tax revenue, or economic resilience.
This isn’t just about West Virginia. It’s about how our entire country finances infrastructure. And we’ve been building this way for generations.
What Role Does Federal Funding Play?
Federal funding makes this problem worse. Most federal dollars are earmarked for new construction, not maintenance. States receive generous matches—up to 80%—if they build something new, but far less if they focus on preserving what they already have.
At first glance, it looks like a bargain: build a shiny new road for 20 cents on the dollar. But once it’s built, the cost of maintenance, repair, and eventual replacement becomes the state’s responsibility. Over time, these obligations compound, quietly undermining a state’s solvency while providing little flexibility to address local needs.
The result is a perverse system that rewards expansion and penalizes prudence. It encourages states to build far more infrastructure than they can ever afford to maintain. West Virginia followed that path. And now it’s maxed out its borrowing capacity, with little to show for it except mounting liabilities.
It's Time for a New Strategy
The hard truth is this: Growth doesn’t guarantee solvency. Infrastructure isn’t a magic wand; it’s a long-term obligation. Roads, bridges, water systems, and streetlights require maintenance. If they aren’t supported by enough private investment—by enough productive use of the land around them—they become financial liabilities, not assets.
The Strong Towns approach emphasizes a simple test: For every dollar spent on public infrastructure, there should be at least $20 to $40 in private investment to make that spending financially viable over time. That’s the kind of development that can support its own infrastructure, now and into the future.
West Virginia doesn’t need more highway expansion. It needs a coherent, long-term strategy to preserve what it has, prioritize safety and fiscal responsibility, and align infrastructure spending with real return on investment. That shift must happen now, not under financial duress but by deliberate choice.
West Virginia is learning this lesson the hard way. Others would be wise to pay attention. Because if we don’t change how we build and finance our roads, it won’t matter how smooth the pavement is. The whole system will eventually collapse under its own weight.
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Edward Erfurt is the Chief Technical Advisor at Strong Towns. He is a trained architect and passionate urban designer with over 20 years of public- and private-sector experience focused on the management, design, and successful implementation of development and placemaking projects that enrich the tapestry of place. He believes in community-focused processes that are founded on diverse viewpoints, a concern for equity, and guided through time-tested, traditional town-planning principles and development patterns that result in sustainable growth with the community character embraced by the communities which he serves.